1990 Tampa Bay Area Retail Survey by Bob Andelman

The building trades may seem down but retail isn't flying high either. Amidst the rubble of the Campeau empire, the Ames/Zayres merger, the collapses nationally of B. Altman's and Garfinkel's, Silk Greenhouse's variety of woes and flagging consumer spending, a better line of work in 1990 might be selling tour packages to the Eastern Bloc.

"It's slow," says developer Craig Sher, president of the Sembler Company. "It's much worse than the government or reports would lead us to believe. There's not that many discretionary dollars. We stay in touch with the retailers who are our tenants there's not a lot of happy campers out there. The strong will survive but there aren't many strong. This is not a good time to start a new retail concept. The power stores are doing well but the secondary and tertiary stores just aren't making it."

Sher says the downward retail trend began in late '89 "and I don't think we've seen the bottom yet."

New shopping center starts in the Bay area are hard to come by. "For sale" signs now tower over the former site of L.J. Hooker's intended Lake Fair Mall in Brandon. Sembler is proceeding with Target and Marshalls as anchor tenants at 250,000 square foot University Plaza in Tampa, another Target at Clearwater Collection, 50,000 square foot Beneva Marketplace in Sarasota and Tyrone Crossing in St. Petersburg with Wal-Mart and Silk Greenhouse. But the latter tenant at Tyrone is juggling a fistful of woe in the corporate suite and small- to medium-size tenants are hard to come by.

"I think we have a reasonable concern about (Silk Greenhouse's) future. But their concept is good we hope they can turn it around. Their problems are more operational in nature they sell quite a bit of merchandise," says Sher.

Meanwhile, Sher describes himself as a "skeptic" with regard to retail development in downtown St. Petersburg at a time when upscale stores can't rub two LBOs together to light a fire.

"I desperately hope it succeeds," he says, "but it's a bad retail market. That whole market is suspect now. Plus, I don't think St. Petersburg is a high-end market. It's a middle market."

Glen Harrell, vice president and general manager of Bay Plaza Realty Co., says he has heard such concerns but that Bay Plaza hasn't lowered its sights one iota from bringing a single, high-end retailer to the master developer's 150,000 s.f. South Core building.

"If you look at who is prospering on the retail heap, it's only the upscale people," he says. "It's the only way to go for this type of project."

Bay Plaza expects to start construction Oct. 1 on Mid Core, which will offer 180,000 s.f. of retail space, less 57,000 s.f. for an 18 to 20-screen AMC Theaters movie complex. "We're in good shape. The theater business is real good. The only difficulty is the 12-month construction process. After October, it's sit back and watch the bricks and mortar," says Harrell.

There is upbeat news in Bay area retailing, mostly among the discount department stores pushing their way into the market.

Target and Wal-Mart stores have mounted a general assault on Florida that will come to a head in the Tampa Bay area in July 1991. That's when half a dozen new Target stores will open simultaneously to compete head-to-head with approximately the same number of Wal-Mart stores now open or under construction. They'll also contend with Kmart stores, already well-established in the region.

"We feel there's a need for our brand of retailing in that area and we're just moving that way," according to Kristin Stehben, spokeswoman for Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart.

Wal-Mart opened a 118,266 square foot store in Pinellas Park in late June. By year's end, the company expects to roll out grand openings in Tampa on Waters Ave. (114,760 s.f.) and Dale Mabry (118,266 s.f.), St. Petersburg's Tyrone Crossing (114,760 s.f.) and on U.S. 19 in Palm Harbor (89,799 s.f.). In the works: a 1-million square foot regional distribution facility in Winter Haven.

Target first moved into Florida in 1989 when it acquired six sites left vacant by the failed Richway chain in South Florida. Until then, the Minneapolis chain had concentrated expansion in western states, California, Oregon and Michigan. From 1991-95, the company expects to add 300 new stores 50 in Florida to its 421 existing stores. By comparison, Target entered California in '83 and now has 101 stores there.

"Target has positioned itself between discounters (Wal-Mart, Kmart) and department stores (Sears, J.C. Penney) as the upscale discounter," according to George Hite, vice president of public and consumer affairs. "We are a very strong trend merchandiser whether it be electric toasters or sweaters. That's kind of our niche."

The six announced Target locations which average 110,000 square feet are in New Port Richey, the Boot Ranch in East Lake, Largo, Clearwater Collection, 30th & Fletcher and North Dale Mabry in Tampa. The company stages just two grand openings a year, one in July, one in October. The Bay area stores will open simultaneously next July.

"We have other locations under consideration in that market," says Hite. "This will not be the end it's a good start."

St. Petersburg-based deep-discounters Joel & Jerry's opened its seventh store in December in Seminole and is looking for additional expansion opportunities, possibly in Pasco County.

"We're very happy; everything's going according to our plan," says partner Allen Bittker. "If three or four good locations came up tomorrow, we'd open up tomorrow. We're looking for 25,000 to 27,000 square feet. There aren't a lot of places that have that kind of space or they don't have enough parking."

Among specialty retail centers, the Shops at Harbour Island and Sarasota Quay are at two very different stages in their gestation.

The Shops at Harbour Island has, at long last, shaken its old image as a tourist trap and is building a steady trade as a retail destination. Occupancy is just over 90 percent and Tom Dornfield is breathing a little easier.

"I don't think we've turned the corner, but we've reached it," he says. "I think the final push around the bend is going to come from marketing and advertising. Sales were better in May than in March and April and we think June will be pretty good when we get those reports."

Dornfield anticipates blue skies ahead for Harbour Island's two floors of retail shops as road construction at the nearby Tampa Convention Center winds down and the convention business finally begins there this October. "As often as they're booked," he says, "we'll be the next-door neighbor."

Convention business might change the current upscale clothing mix somewhat but not to the degree of kitsch that once saddled the Island's reputation as a fanciful tourist trap. "We don't want to make the mistake that was made here in the beginning and go too touristy retail. We want a real working mix of shops and restaurants," says Dornfield.

Only six store sites ranging from 275 to 1,200 square feet and a few pushcart opportunities remain at the Shops at Harbour Island.

Quite a bit more space remains open at Sarasota Quay, an equally ambitious 194,000 square foot retail/restaurant/office project. The office tower with tenants such as The Travelers (25,000 s.f.), John Hancock (3,000 s.f.) and Citicorp (2,000 s.f.) is close to 90 percent leased, but retail is lagging behind at just 60 percent.

"It's a tough market out there. Tough to find good deals," says Richard Krenn, director of leasing. "(Sarasota Quay) is not an overnight success. It's taking some time. We're looking for a unique, eclectic mix of shops. We're going with retailers we believe in. We're taking great pains."

Krenn predicts the Quay will be fully leased out by the end of 1991 if not sooner.

"It ends up being more attractive because of its uniqueness," he says. "Even if people are having a hard time, they look at us as a destination. We've been able to develop some critical mass. That's what people want to see."

end

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